Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x639d…4777 crypto 1451 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28,927 (+30%) realized +$15,616 · open +$13,311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate66%1172W / 616L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$43,184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,635
7 days−$5,328
14 days−$6,358
30 days+$2,785
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$2,752
other 29% −$202
sports 20% −$516
politics 14% +$22,705
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 359 -97.7% -97.9% 2% 1% -34.1%
≤30d 636 -55.5% -59.8% 34% 29% -3.4%
≤90d 1788 -17.6% -25.5% 66% 56% -4.2%
all 1788 -17.6% -25.5% 66% 56% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 56% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 28% -13.4%
15% -39.1% 11% -21.8%
20% -45.1% 4% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$28 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$43,184
Realized+$15,616
Unrealized+$13,311
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1172 / 616
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1788 / 1451
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1788 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $6,183 $14,779 +$8,596 (+139%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 60¢ 100¢ $6,625 $11,082 +$4,457 (+67%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $3,403 $4,026 +$623 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $1,818 $3,096 +$1,279 (+70%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3,487 $2,927 −$560 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2,304 $2,293 −$11 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $2,240 $1,596 −$645 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $867 $1,131 +$264 (+30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1,120 $1,131 +$11 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1,796 $1,067 −$729 (-41%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 55¢ 100¢ $31 $56 +$25 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 489 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 24 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $87 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $184 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,619 7h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $45 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $0 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $82 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $17 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $108 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $36 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $0 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $16 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $0 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $19 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $24 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $790 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $7 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $280 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $0 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $2 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $395 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $332 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $40 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $63 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $95 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $41 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $10 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $2 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $5 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $0 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,183.58 · official $43,183.59 (match) · 3500 history records