Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x639f…8d21 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$3
other 11% +$1
politics 5% $0
finance 4% $0
sports 2% −$4
weather 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.5% 43% 0% -10.2%
all 33 -1.9% -11.2% 42% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -10.3%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.9%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage474d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 82¢ $27 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $19 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $71 −$5 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $27 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $31 +$2 +6%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Dec 15 $17 $0 +2%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 29 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 28 $7 $0 +3%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 26 $9 $0 -3%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $8 +$1 +9%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Mar 20 $3 −$1 -17%
Xavier vs. Butler Mar 05 $12 −$4 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $27 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $9 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $9 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $21 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $6 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $27 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $20 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $19 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $23 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $28 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $28 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $29 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $26 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $26 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $25 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.40 · official $26.40 (match) · 117 history records