Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x639f…75f0 other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$283 (-4%) realized −$283 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate60%55W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$194
sports 41% −$236
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.0% -2.3% 86% 29% -4.9%
≤30d 92 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 29% -14.4%
≤90d 92 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 29% -14.4%
all 92 -22.3% -29.7% 60% 29% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 29% -14.4%
10% -36.4% 17% -22.6%
15% -42.5% 10% -30.1%
20% -48.2% 3% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$27 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$283
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses55 / 37
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage27d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$18 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $74 −$11 -15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$6 +23%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 +$2 +4%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $278 −$57 -20%
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $25 +$3 +13%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $249 +$10 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $50 +$13 +25%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 +$5 +46%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $13 −$3 -21%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $10 +$2 +17%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw? May 31 $75 −$75 -99%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $357 −$92 -26%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $196 +$22 +11%
Scotland vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $26 −$22 -86%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $146 +$2 +1%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $195 −$55 -28%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $50 $0 +1%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $60 +$25 +42%
CD Universidad de Concepción vs. CD Unión La Calera: O/U 0.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
EC Juventude vs. América FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $2 $0 +3%
CD Cobresal vs. CD Ñublense: O/U 1.5 May 30 $94 +$20 +22%
CA Grau vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 1.5 May 29 $25 +$9 +36%
CA Grau vs. CD Moquegua: O/U 0.5 May 29 $20 +$11 +53%
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. Club Guabirá: O/U 3.5 May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. Club Guabirá: O/U 2.5 May 29 $51 −$50 -99%
CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo vs. Club Guabirá: O/U 1.5 May 29 $27 −$26 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 0.5 May 29 $75 +$20 +27%
AC Monza vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 May 29 $50 +$14 +29%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $47 +$19 +40%
Will South Africa win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $25 +$5 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $57 −$43 -76%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 1.5 May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 0.5 May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. CD Universidad Católica end in a draw? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 44¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 42¢ $25 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 77¢ $24 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 87¢ $29 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 62¢ $25 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 62¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 62¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 62¢ $15 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $24 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 26¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 65¢ $25 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 94¢ $25 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $26 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 2d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 11d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 539 history records