Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63a1…0b0c sports 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,277 (-1%) realized −$5,220 · open −$57
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate82%201W / 43L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,692per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$548
14 days+$548
30 days+$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$4,501
other 26% +$277
culture 1% −$225
world 0% +$18
politics 0% −$953
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +14.9% +4.0% 82% 36% -0.5%
≤30d 25 +9.8% -0.6% 80% 32% -2.9%
≤90d 88 -3.3% -12.5% 81% 17% -14.6%
all 244 -4.1% -13.2% 82% 13% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 13% -10.7%
10% -21.5% 5% -19.2%
15% -29.1% 4% -27.0%
20% -36.1% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$2,674) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$489 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$5,220
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses201 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage606d
Avg bet$1,692
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 93¢ 78¢ $363 $307 −$57 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 29 $360 +$4 +1%
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 29 $350 +$10 +3%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 29 $314 +$35 +11%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 28 $300 +$15 +5%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $524 +$63 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $504 +$20 +4%
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 27 $83 −$82 -98%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 27 $476 +$18 +4%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $88 +$72 +83%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $107 +$53 +50%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $328 +$24 +7%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $23 −$22 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $118 +$79 +67%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $38 −$38 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $56 +$105 +188%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $240 +$14 +6%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $72 +$105 +146%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $76 +$102 +134%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $154 +$4 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $608 +$4 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $587 +$21 +4%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $139 −$139 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $131 +$11 +8%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $119 +$11 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $732 +$105 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $681 +$50 +7%
LoL: HMBLE vs GMBLERS ESPORTS (BO5) - LIT Playoffs May 29 $655 +$27 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $636 +$19 +3%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $600 +$37 +6%
Strasbourg vs. Paris Basketball May 28 $1,092 −$1,091 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $1,061 +$41 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs SemperFi Esports (BO5) - ESL Challenger Leagu May 28 $500 +$51 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $998 +$13 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner May 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 28 $258 −$258 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season May 28 $970 −$970 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $31 +$12 +37%
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? May 14 $22 −$1 -5%
Will paiN Gaming win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 14 $4 −$2 -52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 14 $969 +$15 +2%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs LUA Gaming (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 14 $904 +$65 +7%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 14 $859 +$43 +5%
LoL: Barça eSports vs FALKE Esports (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 13 $449 +$8 +2%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO3) - Prime May 12 $820 +$32 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino May 12 $806 +$14 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $768 +$38 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $749 +$19 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $858 +$24 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Yibing Wu vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 93¢ $364 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Teodora Kostovic SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $364 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Aryna Sabalenka 99¢ $360 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 97¢ $350 9h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $349 9h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 90¢ $240 13h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 89¢ $74 13h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $315 22h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Canada 95¢ $290 25h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Canada 95¢ $10 25h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $524 37h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $524 37h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 96¢ $192 45h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 96¢ $312 46h
Croatia to score first vs. Ghana? BUY No 44¢ $83 2d
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS SELL DK 100¢ $493 2d
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY DK 96¢ $476 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $107 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $88 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $328 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $23 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $38 3d
United States leading at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $118 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $240 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $56 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $59 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 40¢ $72 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $76 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $43 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.82 · official $310.73 · 701 history records