Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63a4…8128 other 132 markets active 8h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%41W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$3
politics 21% −$1
sports 18% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 4% $0
world 4% −$8
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 35 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 96 +0.1% -9.4% 23% 0% -9.4%
all 129 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses41 / 88
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)129 / 132
History coverage173d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 92¢ 88¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? No 93¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Jun 14 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $16 $0 +1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $44 $0 +0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $74 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 10 $36 $0 -0%
New pandemic in 2026? May 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $17 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Barbora Krejcikova May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $49 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $8 7h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $8 8h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $10 12h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 94¢ $10 23h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 26h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 31h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 32h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $11 35h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 39h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $5 39h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $5 39h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 96¢ $2 43h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $11 44h
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL No 92¢ $10 2d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 2d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 2d
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY No 91¢ $10 2d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? SELL No 95¢ $7 2d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY No 95¢ $7 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $8 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $4 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 92¢ $4 3d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $8 3d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $8 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.41 · official $38.41 (match) · 501 history records