Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63a5…eff8 other 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,236 (-10%) realized −$1,181 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%71W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$992
sports 16% −$282
world 5% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 64 -87.8% -88.9% 3% 3% -90.4%
all 166 -3.0% -12.2% 43% 37% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 37% -18.9%
10% -20.6% 32% -26.6%
15% -28.3% 29% -33.7%
20% -35.3% 22% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$39 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,181
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses71 / 95
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)166 / 169
History coverage197d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 44¢ 23¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 47¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4ikibamboni 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 15 $2 +$2 +153%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 15 $1 +$1 +74%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-12? May 13 $3 −$2 -66%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07? May 13 $21 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-01-05? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-01? May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? May 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? May 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? May 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? May 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? May 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? May 13 $85 −$41 -48%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 13 $134 −$134 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-17? May 13 $284 −$284 -100%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? May 13 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Apr 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "phase two" or "second phase" during Israel Pres Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-16? Apr 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-11? Apr 18 $70 −$31 -44%
Will Vitória SC vs. CD Nacional end in a draw? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CD Nacional win on 2026-01-02? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSG win in regular time against Flamengo? Apr 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Apr 18 $93 −$93 -100%
Como 1907 vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "referendum" during Ukraine President events on Apr 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? Apr 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Apr 18 $204 −$79 -39%
Will Cameroon vs. Morocco end in a draw? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2025-12-18? Apr 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Will AS Roma vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Apr 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Apr 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Venezuela" or "boat" during Ukraine President e Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 18 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026? Apr 18 $50 −$21 -42%
AC Milan vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $6 50m
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 47¢ $48 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 33¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 60¢ $8 40d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 73¢ $4 40d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B SELL Nigma Galaxy 54¢ $2 40d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY Nigma Galaxy 30¢ $1 40d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 28¢ $2 40d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $6 41d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A BUY Aurora 51¢ $4 42d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 15¢ $2 42d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 27¢ $1 67d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY GamerLegion 34¢ $1 67d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY GamerLegion 34¢ $3 67d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 10¢ $2 67d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $134 156d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-18? SELL Yes 55¢ $134 156d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $150 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $150 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 156d
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 156d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $73 156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $412 156d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? SELL Yes 51¢ $167 156d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? SELL Yes 88¢ $244 157d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $440 157d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 157d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 157d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 157d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $200 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.26 · official $2.63 (match) · 404 history records