Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63a8…3457 crypto 478 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,421 (-6%) realized −$4,421 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate76%364W / 114L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days−$879
14 days−$1,159
30 days−$3,067
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -13.7% -21.9% 75% 57% -22.8%
≤30d 260 -9.6% -18.2% 75% 60% -16.6%
≤90d 478 -6.1% -15.1% 76% 58% -14.5%
all 478 -6.1% -15.1% 76% 58% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 58% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 24% -22.7%
15% -30.6% 9% -30.2%
20% -37.4% 3% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$134 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,421
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses364 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)478 / 478
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 478 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $153 +$32 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $255 +$22 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $142 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $213 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $193 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $173 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $345 −$340 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $305 +$38 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $132 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $121 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $112 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $113 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $142 +$28 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $91 −$90 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $92 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $96 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $91 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $147 −$145 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $63 −$62 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $96 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $81 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $162 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $142 +$23 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $122 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $122 −$120 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $122 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $122 +$26 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $92 +$18 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $86 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $102 −$22 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $91 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $65 −$64 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $77 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $83 −$80 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $82 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $109 +$15 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $30 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $76 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $18 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $153 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $16 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $16 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $18 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $37 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $47 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $24 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $16 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $72 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $255 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $62 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $98 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $142 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $40 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $9 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records