Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:17:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
63 0x63ac…7e9f crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%25W / 9L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$14
other 24% −$7
economics 15% −$4
politics 8% $0
crypto 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 34 +0.2% -9.3% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$570) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses25 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage250d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? Jun 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 19? Mar 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 19 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 02 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Mar 02 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 26? Jan 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $3,518 −$4 -0%
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 19 $3,500 −$4 -0%
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 19 $3,546 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 13? Jan 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 11? Jan 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $3,060 −$3 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 06 $3,068 −$3 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 06 $3,086 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 06 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 19? Dec 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 9? Dec 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 5? Dec 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 29? Dec 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Nov 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 29? Nov 02 $60 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 24? Oct 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 24 $38 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 19 $4,016 −$5 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 19 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $2,085 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $50 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 35d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 42d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $40 57d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $46 90d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $101 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $29 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $46 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $33 133d
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $33 148d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 148d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $33 148d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $40 150d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,514 157d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,518 157d
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $3,496 157d
Will Hoffenheim win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $3,500 157d
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $3,542 157d
Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $3,546 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.96 · official $87.96 (match) · 259 history records