Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:01:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63ad…1c94
crypto · 789 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$211 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$211 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$211
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses441 / 348
Open positions0
Markets (closed)789 / 789
History coverage57d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 789 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$13
14 days−$10
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$15 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$15 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$8 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $14 −$4 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $17 +$3 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $12 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $9 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $8 −$2 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $7 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -4.9% -14.0% 56% 25% -6.6%
≤30d 186 -17.6% -25.5% 49% 35% -17.6%
≤90d 789 -9.6% -18.2% 56% 50% -18.2%
all 789 -9.6% -18.2% 56% 50% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 50% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 43% -26.0%
15% -33.2% 35% -33.1%
20% -39.8% 27% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1885 history records