Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x63ad…790c sports 454 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,440 (+6%) realized +$14,847 · open +$593
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate64%289W / 163L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$612per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$558est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$1,970
14 days+$408
30 days+$1,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$13,917
other 3% +$1,859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +87.6% +69.8% 65% 59% +20.0%
≤30d 45 +45.9% +32.0% 56% 53% -1.5%
≤90d 105 +21.8% +10.2% 56% 49% -15.9%
all 452 +11.6% +1.0% 64% 34% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 34% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -8.7% 30% -13.7%
15% -17.5% 26% -22.0%
20% -25.6% 20% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$639) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$320 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$1,342
Realized+$14,847
Unrealized+$593
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses289 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$558
Open positions2
Markets (closed)452 / 454
History coverage178d
Avg bet$612
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot Elsa Jacquemot 59¢ 96¢ $550 $900 +$350 (+64%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 25¢ 56¢ $199 $442 +$243 (+122%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin (Doubles): Mackinlay/Whitehouse vs Bayldon/Harper Jun 20 $2 +$3 +180%
MLP St. Petersburg: Miami Pickleball Club vs Texas Ranchers Jun 19 $37 +$11 +32%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 18 $583 +$52 +9%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $2,326 −$52 -2%
MLP St. Petersburg: Miami Pickleball Club vs Palm Beach Royals Jun 18 $137 +$63 +46%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $46 −$44 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $700 +$305 +44%
MLP Austin: Texas Ranchers vs SoCal Hard Eights Jun 15 $116 +$49 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $107 +$1,049 +982%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $166 +$265 +160%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,234 +$766 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $390 −$390 -100%
MLP Austin: Miami Pickleball Club vs Columbus Sliders Jun 14 $25 +$5 +22%
MLP Austin: Dallas Flash vs Atlanta Bouncers Jun 14 $13 +$53 +414%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 13 $146 −$146 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $19 −$18 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $169 −$166 -98%
MLP Austin: Carolina Hogs vs Miami Pickleball Club Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $98 +$202 +206%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 12 $704 +$401 +57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 12 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,444 +$788 +55%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 11 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 09 $1,996 −$1,960 -98%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $1,800 +$598 +33%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 09 $128 +$51 +40%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $512 −$506 -99%
Otto Virtanen vs. Kamil Majchrzak: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $7 −$1 -19%
Virtanen vs. Majchrzak: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $7 −$4 -57%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 08 $3,376 −$234 -7%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 08 $136 +$377 +277%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $975 +$1,025 +105%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $3 +$1 +48%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $339 +$352 +104%
MLP Columbus: Miami Pickleball Club vs California Black Bears May 31 $21 +$29 +134%
MLP Columbus: Las Vegas Night Owls vs St. Louis Shock May 30 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) May 30 $3 +$7 +197%
Little Rock: Jay Dylan Friend vs Justin Boulais May 30 $1,056 −$1,051 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs May 29 $248 +$428 +172%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 29 $423 +$940 +222%
Kosice: Maks Kasnikowski vs Franco Roncadelli May 26 $198 −$135 -68%
Roland Garros ATP: Cameron Norrie vs Adolfo Vallejo May 26 $309 +$41 +13%
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmark May 26 $1,298 −$73 -6%
Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Brooksby (+1.5) May 18 $114 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Ground Zero - Map 2 Winner May 10 $19 −$19 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 10 $313 −$307 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $4,200 −$4,177 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 22¢ $35 45m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 22¢ $87 46m
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 31¢ $80 54m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Mimi Xu vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Elsa Jacquemot 59¢ $557 1h
Dublin (Doubles): Mackinlay/Whitehouse vs Bayldon/Harper BUY Mackinlay/Whitehouse 35¢ $2 15h
MLP St. Petersburg: Miami Pickleball Club vs Texas Ranchers BUY Texas Ranchers 78¢ $22 38h
MLP St. Petersburg: Miami Pickleball Club vs Texas Ranchers BUY Texas Ranchers 72¢ $15 38h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $66 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $95 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $42 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $8 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $98 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $33 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $98 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $98 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $8 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 97¢ $0 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 51¢ $21 40h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 51¢ $16 40h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 39¢ $839 46h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 39¢ $16 46h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 64¢ $1,472 47h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 40¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming $46 2d
MLP St. Petersburg: Miami Pickleball Club vs Palm Beach Royals BUY Palm Beach Royals 68¢ $137 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons $107 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $1,234 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $138 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $28 5d
MLP Austin: Texas Ranchers vs SoCal Hard Eights BUY Texas Ranchers 72¢ $73 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,342.04 · official $1,231.03 · 2783 history records