Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63ae…68f6 crypto 167 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-4%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%74W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day46.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$217
sports 8% −$5
other 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 46% -25.3%
≤30d 155 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 46% -25.3%
≤90d 155 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 46% -25.3%
all 155 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 46% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 46% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 45% -32.5%
15% -34.3% 43% -39.0%
20% -40.7% 35% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses74 / 81
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 167
History coverage5d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$12 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$59 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $37 +$28 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$8 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$8 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 +$29 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $6 +$10 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$24 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$8 +87%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$11 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$9 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$5 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$7 +112%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Jor BUY 1¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026- BUY 3¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 4¢ $10 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY 4¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $111 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $36 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $40.00 · 332 history records