Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63ae…d535 other 13 markets active 8h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-4%) realized −$59 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 58% +$69
other 42% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.3% +7.0% 71% 71% -18.9%
≤30d 7 +18.3% +7.0% 71% 71% -18.9%
≤90d 9 +16.4% +5.3% 78% 67% -11.7%
all 12 +5.5% -4.6% 75% 58% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 58% -14.1%
10% -13.7% 42% -22.3%
15% -22.1% 33% -29.8%
20% -29.7% 17% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$69 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage117d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$19 +92%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +39%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -63%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +89%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 30 $173 +$14 +8%
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 05 $322 +$17 +5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 26 $286 +$35 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 9h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $39 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 39h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $62 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $42 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 5d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 86¢ $33 63d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 94¢ $123 63d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 63d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 63d
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 63d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 63d
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 94d
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 95¢ $322 109d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 89¢ $286 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.54 · official $201.54 (match) · 28 history records