Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63b0…1428
crypto · 441 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$134 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$137 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$168
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses315 / 115
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)430 / 441
History coverage25d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day94.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 11 History 430 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$111
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $77 $77 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 96¢ 100¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+11%)
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? No 90¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? No 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Amanda Anisimova 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Luxembourg vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $339 $0 −$339 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? No 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will LOS win CBLOL 2026 Split 1? Jun 06 $1 $0 +9%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +16%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $1 $0 +18%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +20%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +10%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $61 −$60 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Madagascar? Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Belgium? Jun 02 $1 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +19%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +9%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 02 $1 $0 +16%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? Jun 01 $1 $0 +12%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $1 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +22%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $1 $0 +16%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Will RED Canids win CBLOL 2026 Split 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +23%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +14%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? May 31 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 31 $1 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 31 $10 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$78
other 6% −$23
sports 2% −$40
tech 1% +$5
world 0% +$3
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 96¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $7 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 90¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 2h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 18h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 18h
Luxembourg vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1 9d
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.6% +0.0% 100% 50% -3.1%
≤30d 430 -4.0% -13.2% 73% 36% -11.1%
≤90d 430 -4.0% -13.2% 73% 36% -11.1%
all 430 -4.0% -13.2% 73% 36% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover94.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 36% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 15% -19.6%
15% -29.1% 5% -27.3%
20% -36.0% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.43 · official $168.43 (match) · 2780 history records