Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
63 0x63b0…11f9 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+8%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate95%21W / 1L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +8.7% -1.6% 95% 32% -3.1%
≤30d 22 +8.7% -1.6% 95% 32% -3.1%
≤90d 22 +8.7% -1.6% 95% 32% -3.1%
all 22 +8.7% -1.6% 95% 32% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 32% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 23% -12.4%
15% -19.7% 9% -20.8%
20% -27.5% 5% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses21 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.63 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records