Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63b0…bbe2
world · 29 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$8 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage467d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 0 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $34 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $23 $0 -1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $21 +$2 +7%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30? Apr 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Apr 03 $12 −$2 -17%
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $22 +$1 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $22 +$1 +2%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 19 $13 +$9 +69%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $9 −$2 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% +$2
other 21% −$1
politics 11% +$10
crypto 4% −$1
sports 4% $0
weather 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $15 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $6 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $0 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $8 2h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $7 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $6 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $20 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $13 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $13 39h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $28 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $7 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $34 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $38 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $38 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $38 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $38 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.0%
all 29 -1.8% -11.2% 48% 3% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -8.2%
10% -19.7% 3% -17.0%
15% -27.4% 3% -25.0%
20% -34.5% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records