Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63b4…686a other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+2%) realized +$106 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$90
sports 11% +$3
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -21.1% -28.6% 55% 26% -7.2%
≤30d 42 -21.1% -28.6% 55% 26% -7.2%
≤90d 42 -21.1% -28.6% 55% 26% -7.2%
all 42 -21.1% -28.6% 55% 26% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.6% 26% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 19% -16.1%
15% -41.7% 12% -24.2%
20% -47.4% 10% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)42 / 48
History coverage5d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 94¢ $440 $439 −$1 (-0%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? No 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21? No 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $753 +$46 +6%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $8 +$2 +30%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $395 +$14 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $306 +$3 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $290 +$12 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $280 +$16 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $251 +$23 +9%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -69%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 -19%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +81%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $241 +$20 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$17 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 +$10 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -52%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $391 +$17 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $130 +$13 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 −$1 -34%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$5 -46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$8 +22%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $441 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $400 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $381 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $410 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $395 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 86¢ $53 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 86¢ $150 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 86¢ $195 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $71 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $7 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $100 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $201 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $309 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 98¢ $6 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 99¢ $300 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $302 22h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $290 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $296 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $80 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $200 25h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $274 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 13¢ $0 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $1 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.83 · official $441.83 (match) · 131 history records