Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63b5…1e7a other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+4%) realized +$18 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$41
politics 6% +$2
sports 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.5% -5.5% 50% 50% +0.1%
≤30d 20 +4.5% -5.5% 50% 50% +0.1%
≤90d 20 +4.5% -5.5% 50% 50% +0.1%
all 20 +4.5% -5.5% 50% 50% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 50% +0.1%
10% -14.5% 35% -9.5%
15% -22.8% 25% -18.2%
20% -30.3% 25% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by June 30? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$10 +53%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $11 +$12 +116%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $4 −$1 -33%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$7 +33%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $18 +$6 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $80 +$12 +14%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$70 +176%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 +$13 +436%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4 +$5 +126%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $19 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $7 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 95¢ $13 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes $1 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $2 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes $0 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $80 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 24h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 27h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes $0 27h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.49 · official $1.49 (match) · 45 history records