Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x63ba…9705 crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+5%) realized +$102 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%27W / 15L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$98
other 27% +$111
sports 4% −$1
world 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.1% -6.7% 64% 52% -2.6%
≤30d 42 +3.1% -6.7% 64% 52% -2.6%
≤90d 42 +3.1% -6.7% 64% 52% -2.6%
all 42 +3.1% -6.7% 64% 52% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 52% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 36% -11.9%
15% -23.8% 29% -20.4%
20% -31.2% 19% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)42 / 50
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 85¢ 84¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 43¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 14¢ $40 $9 −$31 (-77%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 76¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 83¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$10 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$15 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $127 +$28 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$58 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $76 +$61 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $65 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 79¢ $40 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.42 · official $210.06 (match) · 98 history records