Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63bb…201b crypto 880 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-5%) realized −$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%438W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$35
14 days−$89
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$205
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +3.4% -6.4% 56% 55% -19.4%
≤30d 579 -9.5% -18.1% 48% 46% -20.7%
≤90d 876 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 48% -18.8%
all 880 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 48% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 48% -18.8%
10% -23.7% 46% -26.5%
15% -31.0% 44% -33.6%
20% -37.8% 40% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses438 / 442
Open positions0
Markets (closed)880 / 880
History coverage129d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 880 Trades
no open positions (327 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1944 history records