Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63bb…55f0 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$18
crypto 43% +$4
sports 14% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +166.9% +141.5% 67% 67% +21.0%
≤30d 13 +54.7% +40.0% 46% 38% -12.8%
≤90d 13 +54.7% +40.0% 46% 38% -12.8%
all 13 +54.7% +40.0% 46% 38% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.0% 38% -12.8%
10% +26.6% 31% -21.2%
15% +14.4% 31% -28.8%
20% +3.2% 31% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +129% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)13 / 19
History coverage24d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$14 +354%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$11 -40%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +408%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +319%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 25 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 25 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $19 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $13 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $13 17h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 17h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 36h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 37h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 37h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $13 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.49 · official $31.50 (match) · 47 history records