Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63c4…111b other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$89 (-13%) realized −$50 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days+$54
14 days−$30
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$47
sports 15% −$20
world 4% −$24
tech 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +56.1% +41.2% 27% 27% +21.1%
≤30d 24 -13.5% -21.7% 21% 21% -24.7%
≤90d 24 -13.5% -21.7% 21% 21% -24.7%
all 24 -13.5% -21.7% 21% 21% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 21% -24.7%
10% -29.2% 21% -31.9%
15% -36.0% 17% -38.5%
20% -42.3% 17% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$14 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage14d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $166 $186 +$20 (+12%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $37 $28 −$9 (-25%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $1 −$12 (-90%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $20 +$5 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $18 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$52 +510%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $12 +$97 +786%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Jun 13 $25 +$13 +50%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $37 +$40 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 08 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 08 $25 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 66¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $18 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $18 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 29h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $13 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 5d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $10 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes $15 9d
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes $9 9d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $5 10d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $5 10d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 10d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? SELL No 69¢ $38 10d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $36 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 18¢ $15 13d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $10 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 14d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes $13 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.85 · official $216.85 (match) · 54 history records