Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
63 0x63c7…26aa sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+8%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$43
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +37.5% +24.4% 83% 83% +31.5%
≤30d 8 +3.1% -6.7% 62% 62% +5.2%
≤90d 8 +3.1% -6.7% 62% 62% +5.2%
all 8 +3.1% -6.7% 62% 62% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 62% +5.2%
10% -15.6% 62% -4.9%
15% -23.8% 50% -14.1%
20% -31.2% 50% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $47 +$12 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $22 +$24 +110%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$8 +58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +56%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $47 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $47 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $22 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $14 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $12 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records