Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
63 0x63ca…2077 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate89%100W / 12L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,168per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$39
politics 43% −$41
economics 4% +$1
other 1% +$77
sports 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
world 0% +$28
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 112 +7.3% -2.9% 89% 29% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 29% -9.5%
10% -12.2% 21% -18.2%
15% -20.7% 16% -26.1%
20% -28.5% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses100 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage628d
Avg bet$1,168
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? Jun 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 29 $103 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? Apr 25 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 22 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Dec 02 $102 +$2 +2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will Hamburger SV vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Oct 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-03? Oct 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $107 −$1 -1%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-04? Oct 09 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-05? Oct 09 $10 +$6 +61%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-05? Oct 09 $16 +$2 +15%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-10-04? Oct 09 $16 +$4 +22%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-04? Oct 09 $16 +$4 +27%
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-04? Oct 09 $16 +$8 +47%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-04? Oct 09 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Lille OSC win on 2025-09-28? Oct 02 $4 +$3 +70%
Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-28? Oct 02 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Angers SCO win on 2025-09-28? Oct 02 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-09-28? Oct 02 $7 +$4 +59%
Will Lecce win on 2025-09-28? Oct 02 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-28? Oct 02 $10 +$3 +32%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-09-28? Oct 02 $9 +$4 +47%
Lynx vs. Mercury Oct 02 $11 +$6 +56%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-28? Oct 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Aces vs. Fever Oct 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Konyaspor win on 2025-09-22? Sep 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $9 +$2 +27%
Will FC Nantes win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $11 +$2 +15%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $8 +$5 +56%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-09-26? Sep 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Paris FC win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Pisa SC win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $7 +$3 +38%
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $10 +$4 +43%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Verona win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $17 +$2 +12%
Will Cagliari win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $16 +$3 +19%
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $20 +$8 +39%
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Pisa SC win on 2025-09-22? Sep 28 $45 +$3 +8%
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26? Sep 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-09-27? Sep 28 $50 +$22 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 22 $62,643 −$63 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of June? BUY No 100¢ $103 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $103 24d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $103 58d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $101 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 115d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $50 115d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $105 151d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $104 201d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? BUY No 98¢ $102 217d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $102 256d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $106 256d
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-10-05? BUY No 62¢ $10 263d
Will Hamburger SV vs. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 263d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-10-05? BUY No 87¢ $16 263d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-10-04? BUY No 86¢ $25 263d
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-10-04? BUY No 63¢ $10 263d
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-10-04? BUY No 68¢ $16 263d
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-10-04? BUY No 82¢ $16 263d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-10-04? BUY No 79¢ $16 263d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-10-03? BUY No 75¢ $16 263d
Aces vs. Fever BUY Aces 65¢ $11 266d
Lynx vs. Mercury BUY Mercury 64¢ $11 266d
Aces vs. Fever BUY Aces 67¢ $11 266d
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-09-28? BUY No 60¢ $4 268d
Will Pisa SC win on 2025-09-28? BUY No 72¢ $7 268d
Will Verona win on 2025-09-28? BUY No 89¢ $17 268d
Will Lecce win on 2025-09-28? BUY No 78¢ $10 268d
Will AC Milan win on 2025-09-28? BUY No 59¢ $5 268d
Will Paris FC win on 2025-09-28? BUY No 76¢ $6 268d
Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-28? BUY No 65¢ $5 268d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.65 · official $102.65 (match) · 307 history records