Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63cc…eec5 weather 767 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,382 (+63%) realized +$5,479 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%54W / 598L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day102.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$434
other 12% −$321
weather 9% −$429
finance 6% −$99
sports 5% −$54
politics 2% −$51
economics 2% −$39
tech 1% −$51
crypto 1% −$72
culture 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-51.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -25.1% -32.2% 34% 27% -24.3%
≤30d 652 -46.0% -51.1% 8% 6% -18.4%
≤90d 652 -46.0% -51.1% 8% 6% -18.4%
all 652 -46.0% -51.1% 8% 6% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.1% 6% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -55.8% 5% -26.2%
15% -60.1% 5% -33.3%
20% -64.0% 4% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$3 · ×6.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$5,479
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses54 / 598
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions115
Markets (closed)652 / 767
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day102.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 115 History 652 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 56¢ 94¢ $26 $44 +$18 (+69%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? No 97¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 22? No 12¢ 6¢ $21 $10 −$11 (-54%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+195%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-05 House seat? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 5¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 16¢ 17¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $3 −$21 (-87%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? No 76¢ 34¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-56%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre Jun 22 $2 −$2 -99%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +18%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $8 −$2 -24%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 −$15 -51%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $3 −$2 -71%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -97%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $8 +$2 +33%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -32%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $322 −$4 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 21 $1 $0 -10%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -21%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 21 $12 $0 +1%
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $5 −$2 -37%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 21 $4 $0 -13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $4 +$23 +653%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $4 $0 +11%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $37 −$36 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +15%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $38 −$37 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$9 +45%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $28 −$27 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $274 −$10 -4%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $168 −$4 -2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 19 $13 +$5 +38%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $18 −$2 -13%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 12¢ $22 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 56¢ $27 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $38 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 0¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 5h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $5 9h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $2 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $4 9h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian pre SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 9h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 4¢ $2 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 5¢ $3 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $2 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $15 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.29 · official $275.37 (match) · 3500 history records