Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63ce…5eed crypto 1563 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,408 (+3%) realized +$1,389 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%942W / 620L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$229
14 days+$745
30 days+$742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$859
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +18.2% +6.9% 70% 70% +4.9%
≤30d 640 +5.9% -4.1% 64% 64% -4.9%
≤90d 1562 +9.1% -1.3% 60% 60% -8.0%
all 1562 +9.1% -1.3% 60% 60% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 60% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 60% -16.8%
15% -19.4% 60% -24.8%
20% -27.3% 57% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$22 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$1,389
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses942 / 620
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1562 / 1563
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 60¢ 98¢ $30 $49 +$19 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$22 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$20 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$27 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$21 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$14 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$20 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$19 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$20 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$21 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$13 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $28 +$18 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$27 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$23 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$19 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$22 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$22 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$20 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $23 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $22 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $28 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $9 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.75 · official $43.50 · 3500 history records