Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63cf…6198 other 52 markets active 10h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$50 (+2%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$50
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$21
sports 50% +$19
crypto 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +26.1% +14.1% 36% 17% -7.7%
≤30d 44 +20.4% +8.9% 34% 16% -8.1%
≤90d 44 +20.4% +8.9% 34% 16% -8.1%
all 44 +20.4% +8.9% 34% 16% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.9% 16% -8.1%
10% -1.5% 14% -16.9%
15% -11.0% 11% -24.9%
20% -19.7% 7% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$13 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)44 / 52
History coverage7d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +206%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $322 −$320 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -16%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $311 +$25 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $180 +$10 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $301 +$7 +2%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $251 +$22 +9%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $7 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $339 +$300 +89%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 11 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $35 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $167 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 17h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 34h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 35h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 37h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $38 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $29 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 40h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 41h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 47h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $25 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $201 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.73 · official $37.73 (match) · 148 history records