Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63cf…94dd sports 57 markets active 8h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,377 (+5%) realized +$1,374 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 36L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$229est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$1,094
14 days+$1,000
30 days+$1,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,490
other 35% +$2,531
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +5.3% -4.7% 35% 31% -5.7%
≤30d 54 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 30% -6.0%
≤90d 54 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 30% -6.0%
all 56 +1.0% -8.7% 36% 32% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 32% -5.9%
10% -17.4% 21% -14.9%
15% -25.4% 18% -23.2%
20% -32.7% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$283 vs −$128 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$1,374
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$229
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage249d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$9 -86%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -55%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -69%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 +$6 +536%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$15 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7,019 +$3,541 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,519 −$79 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2,615 −$2,600 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2,018 +$84 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,011 −$419 -41%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $506 +$41 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $503 +$123 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$90 -88%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $302 +$95 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2,308 +$275 +12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$41 -40%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$21 +58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $504 +$199 +40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,805 +$212 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $21 +$116 +565%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $205 −$59 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$7 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$36 -70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $101 −$52 -52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,642 +$875 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $336 −$149 -44%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $27 −$3 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $204 −$4 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $638 −$112 -18%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 8h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 25¢ $1 32h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $0 32h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $0 32h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 32h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $6 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $21 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $15 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $43 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $73 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $10,560 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,022 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.26 · official $153.26 (match) · 123 history records