Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63d0…b4e3 crypto 35 markets active 23h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+5%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$9
weather 25% +$1
other 10% $0
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -1.8% -11.1% 40% 34% -7.1%
≤30d 35 -1.8% -11.1% 40% 34% -7.1%
≤90d 35 -1.8% -11.1% 40% 34% -7.1%
all 35 -1.8% -11.1% 40% 34% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 34% -7.1%
10% -19.6% 29% -16.0%
15% -27.4% 23% -24.1%
20% -34.5% 20% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$12 +228%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$22 +419%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$27 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$6 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 64¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records