Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63d1…4370 crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$357 (-4%) realized −$355 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate76%48W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$69
other 34% +$12
tech 10% −$235
politics 7% −$37
world 3% −$28
economics 2% $0
sports 2% −$140
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +0.6% -9.0% 92% 0% -9.2%
all 63 -12.3% -20.7% 76% 6% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 6% -13.1%
10% -28.2% 5% -21.4%
15% -35.2% 3% -29.0%
20% -41.5% 3% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$33 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized−$355
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses48 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage616d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $207 $207 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $168 $166 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 9? Jun 09 $320 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $60 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 19 $277 +$1 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 19 $270 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 11 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 7? May 11 $245 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 06 $169 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 06 $180 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 14 $20 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 14 $140 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $183 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 23-March 1? Mar 11 $180 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Feb 28 $20 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $300 −$237 -79%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 04 $260 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 8? Jan 22 $320 +$1 +0%
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? Jan 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 08 $195 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 19 $300 +$1 +0%
Will BNB reach $1400 in November? Dec 14 $138 +$1 +1%
Will BNB reach $1600 in November? Dec 14 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 16? Nov 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 16 $300 +$2 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 07 $130 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in October 2025? Nov 07 $165 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $122,000 and $124,000 on October Oct 26 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $128,000 on October 11? Oct 26 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in September? Oct 11 $5 +$5 +96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 11 $275 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 19 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 475–499 times August 15–August 22? Sep 19 $200 $0 +0%
Solana above $160 on August 11? Aug 20 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 11 $265 +$2 +1%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 25 $275 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 09 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? Jun 20 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 09 $98 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 24 $233 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 22 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $140 −$140 -100%
Was Milei hacked? Mar 17 $300 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $168 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $320 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 29d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $278 31d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $277 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 32d
Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $270 40d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 40d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $55 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $60 45d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $245 45d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 58d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 67d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $169 67d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 100d
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $183 101d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $140 101d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 112d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $180 112d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 96¢ $20 112d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $63 133d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $300 136d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 25¢ $2 143d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $260 149d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 96¢ $20 149d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $320 163d
Will BNB hit $1500 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 182d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $195 182d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 BUY No 100¢ $300 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.21 · official $373.72 (match) · 126 history records