Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63d2…22dc crypto 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+5%) realized +$49 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate66%82W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days+$77
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$52
other 24% +$25
crypto 19% −$22
world 2% +$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +41.8% +28.3% 83% 67% +10.2%
≤30d 43 +11.8% +1.2% 67% 40% +0.1%
≤90d 124 +1.7% -8.0% 66% 44% -3.9%
all 124 +1.7% -8.0% 66% 44% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 44% -3.9%
10% -16.8% 33% -13.1%
15% -24.9% 22% -21.5%
20% -32.2% 18% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses82 / 42
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage44d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 73¢ 72¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Jun 19 $80 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $73 +$13 +17%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $64 +$8 +13%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $59 +$5 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $45 +$15 +32%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $29 +$16 +57%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $9 +$19 +206%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $4 +$12 +291%
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +8%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 03 $7 −$7 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $6 +$2 +31%
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan Jun 03 $6 $0 -1%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $3 +$2 +87%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 0.5 May 24 $22 −$22 -99%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5 May 24 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 24 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 $0 +6%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $1 $0 +27%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Mirassol FC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $17 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $2 +$9 +442%
Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5 May 23 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +14%
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 23 $7 +$1 +7%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $7 +$1 +14%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners May 20 $6 $0 -6%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 20 $3 +$2 +81%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jiri Lehecka May 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 08 $11 −$11 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi May 08 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 73¢ $89 10m
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular SELL Gen.G Global Academy 100¢ $89 1h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular BUY Gen.G Global Academy 90¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 85¢ $73 8h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 100¢ $73 12h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 88¢ $64 13h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 100¢ $64 13h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 92¢ $59 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $45 16h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Laslo Djere 63¢ $29 18h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 32¢ $9 19h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 99¢ $10 20h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 61¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 25¢ $4 35h
Olympic Dcheira vs. HUS Agadir: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $9 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 92¢ $8 10d
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Riddle 66¢ $7 16d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl SELL GLYPH 98¢ $7 16d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl BUY GLYPH 74¢ $6 16d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan SELL Katie Swan 76¢ $6 16d
Birmingham: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Katie Swan BUY Katie Swan 76¢ $6 16d
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade SELL Timo Legout 47¢ $1 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Jakub Mensik 99¢ $5 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 52¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.40 · official $89.81 · 238 history records