Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63d4…a2f1
sports · 369 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$270,524 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$195,154 · open +$65,485
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$635,298
Realized+$195,154
Unrealized+$65,485
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses121 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,684
Open positions492
Markets (closed)339 / 369
Avg bet$4,087
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 492 History 339 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,453
7 days+$9,931
14 days+$11,303
30 days+$20,428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $443,520 $477,053 +$33,533 (+8%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $56,385 $57,466 +$1,081 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 51¢ 88¢ $23,149 $39,435 +$16,286 (+70%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 84¢ $17,504 $23,345 +$5,841 (+33%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 18¢ $8,854 $3,506 −$5,348 (-60%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 27¢ $48 $2,867 +$2,820 (+5923%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Yes 1¢ 100¢ $15 $2,257 +$2,242 (+14609%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? No 0¢ 36¢ $19 $1,379 +$1,360 (+7150%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 10¢ 77¢ $168 $1,293 +$1,125 (+670%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 75¢ 91¢ $959 $1,162 +$203 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 60¢ 60¢ $900 $892 −$8 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 55¢ 56¢ $825 $832 +$7 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 34¢ $800 $783 −$17 (-2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 38¢ 44¢ $616 $701 +$86 (+14%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Team Falcons 41¢ 41¢ $615 $615 +$0 (+0%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Natus Vincere 44¢ 40¢ $660 $607 −$52 (-8%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) TheMongolz 39¢ 38¢ $585 $578 −$8 (-1%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $63 $573 +$510 (+808%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 56¢ $505 $565 +$60 (+12%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $520 $520 +$1 (+0%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 10¢ 19¢ $229 $458 +$229 (+100%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 88¢ $23 $443 +$420 (+1867%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 3¢ 57¢ $21 $407 +$386 (+1812%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 17¢ 18¢ $400 $401 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $380 $396 +$15 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 Jun 12 $5 +$191 +4041%
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $104 +$6 +6%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 12 $47 +$5 +10%
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish P Jun 12 $1 +$23 +2922%
Will Mia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wyatt Johnston win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $637 +$363 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $657 +$343 +52%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $477 +$523 +109%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,105 +$895 +81%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $448 +$552 +123%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $547 +$453 +83%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $497 +$503 +101%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $463 +$537 +116%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $610 +$390 +64%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $557 +$443 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $327 +$673 +206%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $687 +$313 +46%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $547 +$453 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $677 +$323 +48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,089 +$411 +38%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 06 $304 +$296 +97%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $487 +$513 +105%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $627 +$373 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $597 +$403 +67%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 05 $550 +$950 +172%
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 04 $127 +$246 +194%
Map Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 04 $309 +$721 +234%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $627 +$373 +60%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 04 $905 −$560 -62%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $2 +$98 +5783%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1,820 +$180 +10%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $687 +$313 +46%
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) May 29 $407 +$593 +146%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5) May 27 $570 +$930 +163%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) May 24 $470 +$530 +113%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $607 +$393 +65%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) May 23 $523 +$877 +168%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $4,966 +$124 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $740 +$20 +3%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $24,224 +$738 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 22 $627 +$373 +60%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 22 $772 +$1,228 +159%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - CS Asia Championship May 21 $687 +$313 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $706 +$294 +42%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5) May 21 $885 −$885 -100%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) May 20 $836 −$836 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) May 20 $667 +$333 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $667 −$667 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$198,262
politics 27% +$7,334
economics 12% +$33,206
sports 11% +$20,537
other 7% +$11,053
tech 1% −$9,047
culture 0% −$601
finance 0% −$357
weather 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $911 5m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $136 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $275 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $1 6h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $10 6h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $2 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $2 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $19 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $1 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $2 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $28 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $24 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $59 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $6 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $2 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $47 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $61 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $44 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $118 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $1 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $2 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $2 7h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 44¢ $60 7h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +215.0% +185.0% 100% 81% +64.1%
≤30d 61 +185.0% +157.9% 89% 72% +9.8%
≤90d 339 +54.1% +39.4% 36% 32% +21.2%
all 339 +54.1% +39.4% 36% 32% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.4% 32% +21.2%
10% +26.1% 30% +9.6%
15% ← realistic here +13.9% 26% -1.0%
20% +2.7% 23% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635,297.71 · official $636,390.78 (match) · 3500 history records