Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
63 0x63d8…be20 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$20 (+18%) realized +$30 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% +$13
sports 34% +$17
other 27% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.6% -0.8% 50% 50% +10.0%
≤30d 7 +18.3% +7.0% 57% 57% +18.9%
≤90d 11 +33.7% +21.0% 64% 64% +17.6%
all 11 +33.7% +21.0% 64% 64% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.0% 64% +17.6%
10% +9.4% 64% +6.3%
15% -1.2% 45% -3.9%
20% -10.8% 36% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage46d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+44%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +181%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 +$13 +30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $18 +$12 +70%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $1 +$4 +276%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 30 $4 +$1 +40%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $4 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $14 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $39 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 7h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 30h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $18 39d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 39d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 39d
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 39d
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Colorado Rockies 71¢ $4 46d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 78¢ $4 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.41 · official $14.41 (match) · 22 history records