Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
63 0x63da…5b90 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$45 (+6%) realized +$40 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%22W / 7L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$3
14 days+$39
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$28
other 30% +$7
economics 24% +$30
politics 2% −$2
world 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +44.8% +31.0% 80% 80% -1.6%
≤30d 12 +35.4% +22.5% 92% 67% +6.5%
≤90d 26 +9.7% -0.7% 81% 42% -1.0%
all 29 +8.3% -2.0% 76% 38% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 38% -1.3%
10% -11.4% 21% -10.7%
15% -19.9% 21% -19.4%
20% -27.8% 17% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses22 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 36
History coverage241d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $18 −$11 -62%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 AND Will Ecuador vs. Germany end Jun 25 $5 +$4 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Germany vs. Côte d' Jun 20 $5 +$5 +102%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Sweden win on 202 Jun 20 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $9 +$11 +125%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will Leeds United place 17th for the 2025-26 English Premier League se Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Michael Olise have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Cha Jun 16 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Jun 16 $48 +$10 +22%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso Jun 16 $54 +$8 +15%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 Apr 29 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 24 $172 +$29 +17%
Will Bayern München score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Champions Lea Apr 19 $3 +$1 +43%
Will Harry Kane have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Champi Apr 17 $1 +$2 +150%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Apr 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season Apr 14 $11 −$9 -82%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 11 $4 $0 +4%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) Apr 11 $48 +$1 +3%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Apr 06 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $4 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 70% of the vote in 2025 NYC ma Oct 30 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Oct 30 $10 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 4h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Sc BUY 41¢ $5 35h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 AND Will Ecuador vs. Germany end BUY 56¢ $5 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY 86¢ $5 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Germany vs. Côte d' BUY 49¢ $5 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Sweden win on 202 BUY 52¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $17 8d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 8d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 10d
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $18 14d
Will Michael Olise have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Cha SELL No 90¢ $25 54d
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 SELL No 99¢ $30 58d
Will Michael Olise have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Cha SELL No 90¢ $4 58d
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 SELL No 99¢ $5 60d
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 SELL No 99¢ $10 62d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $3 63d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $102 63d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 68d
Will Michael Olise have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Cha BUY No 80¢ $8 68d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $3 68d
Will Bayern München score the most goals in 2025-26 UEFA Champions Lea SELL Yes 50¢ $4 68d
Will Leeds United place 17th for the 2025-26 English Premier League se BUY No 90¢ $9 69d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 69d
Will Gabriel Martinelli have the most goal contributions in the 2025-2 SELL No 99¢ $0 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.11 · official $140.11 (match) · 150 history records