Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
63 0x63db…174c sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$620 (+8%) realized −$1,036 · open +$1,656
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3,774now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$598
7 days+$665
14 days+$568
30 days+$568
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$2,889
crypto 11% −$164
other 6% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.1% -14.2% 53% 50% +1.1%
≤30d 35 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 51% -0.9%
≤90d 35 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 51% -0.9%
all 35 -3.7% -12.9% 54% 51% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 51% -0.9%
10% -21.2% 46% -10.4%
15% -28.9% 40% -19.0%
20% -35.8% 40% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$140 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3,774
Realized−$1,036
Unrealized+$1,656
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions7
Markets (closed)35 / 42
History coverage10d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 33¢ 100¢ $673 $2,051 +$1,378 (+205%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 39¢ 100¢ $330 $851 +$521 (+158%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 45¢ 100¢ $300 $663 +$363 (+121%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 48¢ 100¢ $100 $208 +$108 (+108%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 39¢ 0¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Saudi Arabia 54¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $507 +$473 +93%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $304 +$273 +90%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $304 −$300 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$87 +86%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $305 +$308 +101%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $39 −$38 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $508 −$500 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $202 +$110 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $304 +$210 +69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $508 +$513 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $507 +$421 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $303 +$173 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$29 +28%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $169 −$166 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $23 +$19 +83%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $99 +$51 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $91 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $204 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 24¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $102 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $86 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 12¢ $15 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $27 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 54¢ $101 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 31¢ $102 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 55¢ $101 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 32¢ $102 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $102 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $102 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $305 2h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 52¢ $304 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $102 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $102 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 51¢ $507 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $304 14h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $39 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 49¢ $305 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,774.02 · official $3,770.61 (match) · 78 history records