Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x63e2…8772 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+7%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate73%44W / 16L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day93.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +4.5% -5.5% 73% 55% -3.6%
≤30d 60 +4.5% -5.5% 73% 55% -3.6%
≤90d 60 +4.5% -5.5% 73% 55% -3.6%
all 60 +4.5% -5.5% 73% 55% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 55% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 43% -12.8%
15% -22.8% 18% -21.2%
20% -30.3% 12% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses44 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day93.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$49 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$16 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$7 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records