Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63ea…63d3 crypto 2064 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,157 (-5%) realized −$1,158 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%1153W / 756L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$272
14 days+$825
30 days+$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$947
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 +9.3% -1.1% 68% 57% +5.8%
≤30d 1258 +11.3% +0.7% 65% 55% -5.8%
≤90d 1909 +7.8% -2.5% 60% 52% -13.6%
all 1909 +7.8% -2.5% 60% 52% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 52% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 46% -21.8%
15% -20.3% 35% -29.4%
20% -28.1% 27% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$1,158
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses1153 / 756
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1909 / 2064
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 82¢ 90¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 70¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$8 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$7 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $8 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $9 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.75 · official $11.70 · 3500 history records