Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63ee…f90f
weather · 127 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,191 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,209 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,666
Realized−$1,209
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses113 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)119 / 127
History coverage42d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 8 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$879
7 days−$1,004
14 days−$1,221
30 days−$1,190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,350 $1,351 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $894 $897 +$3 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? No 97¢ 97¢ $761 $765 +$4 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $310 $310 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? No 77¢ 90¢ $59 $69 +$10 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $280 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $1,311 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1,465 −$905 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $1,415 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $271 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $88 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 19°C or below on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on June 10? Jun 11 $182 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $338 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $158 −$158 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 9? Jun 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 9? Jun 10 $90 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $192 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $318 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,951 +$23 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,686 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $411 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 5? Jun 06 $203 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $228 −$69 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 4? Jun 05 $310 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? Jun 05 $2,274 +$25 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1,109 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $419 −$226 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 31? Jun 03 $898 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 31? Jun 03 $1,474 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 30? Jun 03 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 31? Jun 03 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $358 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $476 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on May 29? May 30 $202 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 29? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $500 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $500 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29? May 30 $238 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 29? May 30 $154 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29? May 29 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$1,191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $198 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $310 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $133 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $489 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $405 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $432 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $995 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $27 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 16h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $104 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $202 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $170 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $65 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $63 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $271 40h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $558 40h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? SELL No 0¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $101 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $912 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $399 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.6% -14.6% 92% 0% -17.7%
≤30d 82 -2.6% -11.9% 95% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 119 -2.8% -12.1% 95% 1% -12.4%
all 119 -2.8% -12.1% 95% 1% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 1% -12.4%
10% -20.5% 0% -20.8%
15% -28.2% 0% -28.5%
20% -35.2% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,666.46 · official $3,666.46 (match) · 385 history records