Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
63 0x63f1…6272 world 323 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$9,643 (-14%) realized −$8,520 · open −$1,123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%162W / 116L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day57.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,326now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$5,158
finance 28% −$2,287
politics 3% +$25
crypto 3% −$449
other 2% −$131
sports 0% +$165
economics 0% −$40
culture 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +14.6% +3.7% 38% 26% -26.1%
≤30d 175 +14.6% +3.7% 56% 37% -14.8%
≤90d 278 +24.7% +12.8% 58% 41% -4.0%
all 278 +24.7% +12.8% 58% 41% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.8% 41% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here +2.1% 30% -13.2%
15% -7.8% 22% -21.6%
20% -16.8% 17% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$74 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$2,326
Realized−$8,520
Unrealized−$1,123
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses162 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions54
Markets (closed)278 / 323
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$213
Trades / day57.9
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 278 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $455 $425 −$30 (-7%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $392 $237 −$155 (-39%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 93¢ 95¢ $187 $189 +$3 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 88¢ 89¢ $177 $179 +$2 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 87¢ 88¢ $174 $176 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 69¢ 84¢ $139 $168 +$30 (+21%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 41¢ 37¢ $163 $147 −$16 (-10%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 59¢ 62¢ $119 $124 +$5 (+4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? No 93¢ 93¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 25¢ 63¢ $34 $83 +$49 (+146%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 95¢ 95¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 81¢ 44¢ $81 $44 −$38 (-46%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 40¢ $61 $40 −$20 (-34%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 47¢ 65¢ $26 $36 +$10 (+38%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $36 $33 −$2 (-7%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ 62¢ $8 $29 +$21 (+266%)
Netanyahu out by July 31? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $31 $19 −$12 (-38%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 36¢ 68¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+90%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $11 −$51 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 19 $713 −$24 -3%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -94%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $77 +$4 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 18 $46 −$4 -9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $654 +$119 +18%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $86 +$17 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 18 $159 −$79 -50%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 18 $481 −$54 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 18 $419 −$188 -45%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 18 $128 −$19 -15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $308 −$133 -43%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $263 +$10 +4%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $89 +$48 +54%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $225 +$56 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $203 +$52 +25%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $670 +$19 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $661 −$61 -9%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 17 $133 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $879 −$494 -56%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $93 −$75 -81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $547 −$139 -25%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 16 $171 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $276 −$200 -72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $166 −$122 -74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $474 −$165 -35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 15 $120 +$60 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +841%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $919 +$78 +8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $122 +$37 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $671 −$11 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $236 +$32 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $394 −$258 -65%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,344 −$10 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 14 $473 +$112 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $613 +$134 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 14 $266 −$126 -47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $61 −$48 -78%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $1,375 −$129 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,540 +$246 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 +$21 +75%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $229 −$171 -75%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,035 +$44 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $196 −$196 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $288 +$31 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $628 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $464 −$176 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 17m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $56 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 87¢ $174 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 93¢ $6 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 93¢ $87 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY No 95¢ $48 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 93¢ $187 2h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $26 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $8 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $5 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $8 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $8 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $8 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $9 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $15 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $30 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $8 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $15 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $8 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 35¢ $68 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $139 5h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $81 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 15¢ $26 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,325.88 · official $2,325.86 (match) · 3500 history records