Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
63 0x63f8…23d5 sports 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$50 (-1%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$153
14 days−$42
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$674
other 32% −$546
world 20% +$23
crypto 1% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -35.2% -41.4% 33% 33% -13.8%
≤30d 29 +24.1% +12.2% 48% 41% -6.5%
≤90d 29 +24.1% +12.2% 48% 41% -6.5%
all 29 +24.1% +12.2% 48% 41% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.2% 41% -6.5%
10% +1.5% 34% -15.4%
15% -8.3% 34% -23.6%
20% -17.3% 31% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +99% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$80 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage21d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $36 +$31 +87%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $51 +$55 +107%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $407 +$482 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 −$46 -65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$3 -66%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $253 +$157 +62%
Will Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $608 −$608 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $303 +$53 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$21 +69%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 −$181 -60%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $81 +$97 +120%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $203 +$11 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $760 +$64 +8%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $190 +$35 +19%
Hong Kong SAR vs. Mongolia: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $303 +$120 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $10 +$73 +711%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 31 $6 +$11 +180%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $15 +$85 +550%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $203 −$156 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $66 1h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $105 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $36 1h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $24 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $407 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $71 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $253 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $356 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-1 BUY 11¢ $10 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $26 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $30 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY 53¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $61 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 17¢ $15 5d
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots BUY Yes 40¢ $40 6d
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots BUY Yes 40¢ $13 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $123 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $304 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $608 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 45¢ $81 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $20 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $2 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $1 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $117 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $50 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $25 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $203 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records