Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

63
0x63f8…f752
crypto · 1410 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$870 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$867 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$867
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses953 / 456
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1409 / 1410
History coverage42d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1409 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$8
14 days−$278
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 87¢ 64¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-27%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$11 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$4 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 05 $9 −$7 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $6 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $12 −$9 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$6 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $12 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $13 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.5% -10.0% 76% 55% -8.0%
≤30d 984 -0.5% -10.0% 65% 59% -11.2%
≤90d 1409 -1.2% -10.6% 68% 43% -13.0%
all 1409 -1.2% -10.6% 68% 43% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 43% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 26% -21.3%
15% -26.9% 13% -28.9%
20% -34.1% 7% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.26 · official $8.26 (match) · 3500 history records