Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63f9…1d88 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 288d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$1
other 24% +$1
politics 7% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 -5.0% -14.1% 28% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 18 -5.0% -14.1% 28% 6% -9.1%
all 34 -2.9% -12.1% 29% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -9.1%
10% -20.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -28.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

288d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage288d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $89 −$2 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $9 −$1 -11%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $11 $0 -4%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting? Sep 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 08 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 48m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 48m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $24 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $7 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $31 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $31 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $34 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $27 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $33 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records