Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63fa…169c other 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$29
sports 21% −$19
politics 8% −$6
culture 7% −$6
economics 7% −$18
crypto 6% −$4
world 4% −$5
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage127d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $280 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $144 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $319 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $468 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $349 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $115 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $630 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $350 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $154 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $446 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $231 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $408 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $147 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $694 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 4h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $42 5h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $42 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $42 9h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 12h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 14h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $40 14h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $41 16h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 17h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 18h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 21h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 22h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $43 24h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $43 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 29h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 30h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 32h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 33h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 34h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 37h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 39h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 42h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 44h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 46h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 47h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.71 · official $41.71 (match) · 1322 history records