Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63fb…cb45 crypto 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$53 (+3%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%78W / 73L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$52
other 5% −$13
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.9% -18.5% 60% 50% -15.1%
≤30d 39 -34.7% -40.9% 38% 23% -31.4%
≤90d 43 -28.6% -35.4% 42% 26% -28.5%
all 151 -14.3% -22.5% 52% 30% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 30% -7.3%
10% -29.9% 23% -16.2%
15% -36.7% 18% -24.3%
20% -42.9% 13% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses78 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage148d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$9 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$4 -44%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -44%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$2 +164%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +90%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 16 $8 +$2 +20%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 16 $9 −$2 -22%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 16 $1 +$2 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 18 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 17 $5 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - February 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 17 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 17 $2 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $23 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 58m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 59m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 11d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 11d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 11d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 450 history records