Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
63 0x63fc…f9a5 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$124 (+11%) realized +$130 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$13
other 26% −$49
finance 10% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +153.1% +129.0% 100% 100% +110.3%
≤90d 26 -7.9% -16.6% 46% 42% +2.1%
all 26 -7.9% -16.6% 46% 42% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 42% +2.1%
10% -24.6% 31% -7.6%
15% -31.9% 27% -16.6%
20% -38.6% 27% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$12 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$240
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)26 / 30
History coverage40d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-2%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 33¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-3%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 41¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 30 $12 +$6 +52%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 29 $82 +$96 +117%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? May 29 $14 +$41 +290%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 15? May 12 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 12 $4 −$1 -30%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 12 $29 −$4 -14%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? May 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 12 $203 −$80 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 12 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 12 $87 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 12 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 10? May 10 $57 +$34 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 09 $47 +$36 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 09 $14 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 09 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 09 $43 +$9 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 09 $41 +$8 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 09 $26 +$16 +63%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 9? May 09 $10 −$8 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $88 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 56¢ $41 1h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 43¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 34¢ $71 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? BUY No 25¢ $14 36d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? SELL Yes 57¢ $9 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 36d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? BUY No 41¢ $36 36d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? BUY No 45¢ $82 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.77 · official $239.77 (match) · 90 history records