Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63fc…4a6c sports 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$143 (-6%) realized −$142 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%90W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days−$89
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$142
other 9% +$9
crypto 2% −$19
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 43% -22.8%
≤30d 30 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 43% -22.8%
≤90d 174 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 48% -15.2%
all 174 -2.7% -12.0% 52% 48% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 48% -15.2%
10% -20.4% 47% -23.3%
15% -28.1% 42% -30.7%
20% -35.2% 37% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses90 / 84
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)174 / 175
History coverage86d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $39 +$35 +91%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $10 −$1 -10%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $48 +$41 +86%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$26 +52%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S Jun 26 $5 +$10 +203%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 +$12 +225%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 +$9 +88%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $67 −$66 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$5 +162%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$8 +50%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $21 +$22 +105%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $7 +$6 +90%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$56 +109%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $11 +$3 +29%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $9 −$9 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $41 −$40 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to Score Apr 26 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5) Apr 26 $39 +$9 +24%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $2 +$2 +79%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $39 +$2 +5%
Madrid Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Jaqueline Cristian Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $6 +$5 +76%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Apr 23 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $20 +$14 +70%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Juventus finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Apr 22 $10 +$10 +103%
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5 Apr 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $50 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $74 11h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 13h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 40¢ $9 13h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $10 14h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 15h
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 31h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $48 36h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 37h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $3 2d
Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5) BUY Yunnan Yukun FC 40¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 65¢ $40 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND S BUY 32¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $51 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 77¢ $17 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $19 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $67 3d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $71 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 13¢ $3 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.48 · official $48.48 (match) · 366 history records