Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63fd…0047 weather 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-5%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 22 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 22 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 22 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 22
Open positions10
Markets (closed)22 / 97
History coverage24d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 31? May 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 30? May 29 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 30? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 30? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 30? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 30? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on May 30? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 30? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on May 29? May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on May 29? May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on May 29? May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 29? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 29? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 29? May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on May 28? May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 28? May 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 28? May 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 77¢ $7 29m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? BUY No 72¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 72¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $7 29h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $6 33h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $7 37h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $6 43h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 72¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 52¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $7 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 BUY No 75¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.38 · official $65.38 (match) · 108 history records