Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63fd…5c9c crypto 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$175 (+3%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%94W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$18
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +26.8% +14.7% 33% 33% +42.9%
≤30d 227 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 39% -10.2%
≤90d 227 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 39% -10.2%
all 227 -0.2% -9.7% 41% 39% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 39% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 36% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 29% -26.6%
20% -33.5% 24% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses94 / 133
Open positions0
Markets (closed)227 / 227
History coverage21d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 227 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$45 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$20 +636%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 06 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 06 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 06 $8 −$6 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 06 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 06 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$45 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 05 $7 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 02 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 02 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 02 $15 +$16 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 02 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 02 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 01 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 01 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $12 −$10 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 01 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 01 $59 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $134 −$128 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 31 $128 −$122 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $203 +$57 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $66 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 706 history records