Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
63 0x63ff…5f94 sports 646 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,053 (-3%) realized −$5,041 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate64%415W / 230L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$864est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$107
14 days+$128
30 days−$1,330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$5,899
crypto 22% −$6
other 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +41.5% +28.0% 67% 67% +32.4%
≤30d 15 -43.3% -48.7% 33% 33% -72.8%
≤90d 385 -4.7% -13.8% 61% 53% -17.4%
all 645 -1.2% -10.6% 64% 54% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 54% -12.5%
10% -19.2% 37% -20.9%
15% -27.0% 24% -28.6%
20% -34.1% 13% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$154 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$5,041
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses415 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$864
Open positions1
Markets (closed)645 / 646
History coverage99d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Entropy 55¢ 44¢ $60 $48 −$12 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $61 −$3 -5%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $81 +$52 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $88 +$57 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $66 +$22 +32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $117 −$116 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $509 −$500 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $503 −$500 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner May 17 $70 −$69 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 17 $23 +$46 +197%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $20 +$7 +34%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 17 $52 −$51 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 17 $20 −$1 -4%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $118 −$117 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 10 $141 −$140 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 10 $25 +$3 +12%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 10 $141 −$140 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) May 10 $111 −$110 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 10 $132 +$100 +76%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 10 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 10 $253 +$170 +67%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 10 $52 −$52 -99%
LoL: Disguised vs Dignitas - Game 2 Winner May 09 $51 −$25 -49%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner May 09 $232 +$77 +33%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Yawara Esports - Map 1 Winner May 09 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 09 $171 +$61 +36%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $221 −$113 -51%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 09 $131 +$80 +61%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 09 $101 +$32 +32%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $131 +$30 +23%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner May 09 $61 −$60 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) May 09 $71 +$37 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 09 $60 +$5 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $76 +$27 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner May 09 $35 +$9 +26%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Fisher College (+1.5) May 09 $50 +$6 +11%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs May 08 $81 +$22 +27%
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports - Game 2 Winner May 08 $75 +$9 +12%
LoL: GIANTX vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 08 $110 +$19 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series P BUY Entropy 55¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner SELL Entropy 50¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner BUY Entropy 51¢ $61 1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY T1 60¢ $81 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $88 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $6 12d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $60 12d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $31 15d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 50¢ $51 15d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $67 16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $51 16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $101 16d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $61 16d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $51 16d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $51 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $50 16d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $51 16d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $51 16d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $509 16d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner BUY Sentinels 78¢ $403 28d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner BUY Sentinels 79¢ $101 28d
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 64¢ $70 41d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $70 41d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $23 41d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 37¢ $3 41d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs SELL Legacy 100¢ $27 41d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 59¢ $20 41d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 61¢ $19 41d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 49¢ $1 41d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 53¢ $30 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.04 · official $50.54 · 2158 history records