Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x6400…331a
weather · 557 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$811 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$830 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,352
Realized+$830
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses393 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)531 / 557
History coverage10d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day340.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 26 History 531 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days−$525
14 days+$830
30 days+$830
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $244 $239 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $195 $194 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $195 $193 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? No 97¢ 93¢ $192 $183 −$9 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? No 95¢ 92¢ $185 $179 −$6 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $178 $177 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? No 97¢ 95¢ $169 $165 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? No 98¢ 96¢ $144 $141 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $122 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 97¢ 99¢ $108 $110 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 90¢ 98¢ $73 $79 +$6 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? No 91¢ 95¢ $72 $75 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 94¢ 96¢ $72 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? No 94¢ 94¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? No 90¢ 94¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 90¢ 92¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? No 93¢ 79¢ $67 $57 −$10 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? No 94¢ 94¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? No 91¢ 88¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 99¢ $27 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 92¢ 99¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? No 90¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $67 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $24 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $68 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $193 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $237 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $71 +$7 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $126 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 14? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 12 $82 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $194 −$2 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? Jun 12 $52 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $183 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $149 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 14? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $186 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $119 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $403 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $143 +$8 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 13? Jun 12 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $167 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $64 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $398 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 13? Jun 11 $139 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C or higher on June 13 Jun 11 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 11 $416 −$3 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $69 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $84 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $182 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $232 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $219 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $66 +$6 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $167 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $155 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$808
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $45 3m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? SELL No 93¢ $12 3m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $11 3m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $32 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $9 10m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $94 13m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 95¢ $47 16m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $8 16m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 16m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $33 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $31 19m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 19m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 23m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13? SELL No 96¢ $37 26m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $55 26m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 94¢ $19 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 30m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $6 35m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $100 35m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $10 39m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 39m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 42m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $9 42m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $29 42m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 375 -1.2% -10.6% 73% 1% -10.6%
≤30d 531 +3.1% -6.7% 74% 3% -8.3%
≤90d 531 +3.1% -6.7% 74% 3% -8.3%
all 531 +3.1% -6.7% 74% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover340.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 3% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 2% -17.1%
15% -23.8% 2% -25.1%
20% -31.3% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,352.30 · official $2,349.94 (match) · 3500 history records