Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:08:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x6401…f240 sports 607 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$41,857 (+14%) realized +$40,499 · open +$1,358
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%370W / 218L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day120.7pace
Fees−$4,746est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6,537now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,047
7 days+$26,083
14 days+$33,030
30 days+$38,095
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$39,335
other 0% +$96
crypto 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 247 +34.5% +21.7% 67% 62% +4.4%
≤30d 588 +42.0% +28.5% 63% 58% +2.3%
≤90d 588 +42.0% +28.5% 63% 58% +2.3%
all 588 +42.0% +28.5% 63% 58% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +28.5% 58% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here +16.2% 53% -7.5%
15% +5.0% 50% -16.4%
20% -5.3% 42% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +50% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$323 vs −$388 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$6,537
Realized+$40,499
Unrealized+$1,358
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses370 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$4,746
Open positions18
Markets (closed)588 / 607
History coverage22d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day120.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 76¢ $880 $1,160 +$281 (+32%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 55¢ $483 $823 +$340 (+70%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 86¢ $578 $809 +$231 (+40%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 36¢ 62¢ $433 $741 +$308 (+71%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 78¢ $501 $738 +$237 (+47%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 57¢ 100¢ $326 $566 +$240 (+73%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 36¢ 36¢ $549 $557 +$8 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 74¢ $356 $470 +$114 (+32%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 81¢ $210 $334 +$124 (+59%)
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 34¢ 57¢ $85 $143 +$59 (+69%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 29¢ 50¢ $62 $107 +$45 (+72%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 51¢ $32 $59 +$27 (+82%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 52¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Diana Shnaider 50¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Elise Mertens 50¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 45¢ 0¢ $424 $5 −$419 (-99%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 50¢ 68¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Landaluce 0¢ 0¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+400%)
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) TheMongolz 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $317 −$44 -14%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Tessa Brockmann vs. Alycia Parks: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Brockmann vs. Parks: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Set Handicap: Seidel (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 15 $2,957 +$2,945 +100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $645 +$213 +33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $934 +$798 +85%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $462 −$462 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 15 $870 −$870 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,418 −$1,418 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,362 −$1,362 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,959 −$1,959 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,267 +$1,697 +75%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $39 +$75 +194%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,544 +$663 +43%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $704 +$137 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $232 +$53 +23%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3,167 +$750 +24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $874 +$399 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,701 +$1,997 +74%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$101 +100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,147 +$269 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,883 +$415 +22%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $171 +$22 +13%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $2,777 +$476 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $117 +$188 +160%
Antonia Ruzic vs. Taylah Preston: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,006 −$400 -20%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3,384 +$1,956 +58%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Jun 14 $42 +$118 +285%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $168 +$22 +13%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,183 −$2,173 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $145 +$118 +81%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,413 +$855 +60%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +70%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $442 −$135 -30%
Volynets vs. Birrell: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Katie Volynets vs. Kimberly Birrell: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,039 +$43 +2%
Set Handicap: Svajda (-1.5) vs Damm (+1.5) Jun 14 $25 +$25 +100%
Blinkova vs. Bondar: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
Anna Blinkova vs. Anna Bondar: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $282 +$119 +42%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $1,494 +$59 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,033 +$471 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $379 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) BUY Landaluce 0¢ $0 2m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 48¢ $207 7m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 48¢ $25 7m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 48¢ $3 7m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 48¢ $2 7m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL TheMongolz 48¢ $36 7m
Set Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) BUY Landaluce 0¢ $0 15m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 6¢ $1 16m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 6¢ $11 16m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 8¢ $2 16m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 6¢ $2 17m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 5¢ $2 18m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 5¢ $0 18m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $83 40m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $159 41m
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 60¢ $174 41m
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $0 53m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 55m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 58m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 72¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $72 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 53¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 71¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 56¢ $86 1h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 56¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $257 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $840 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $560 5h
Set Handicap: Seidel (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Parry 50¢ $2,957 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,536.79 · official $6,536.79 (match) · 3257 history records